Foreword

By Carlyle A. Thayer

From the moment I finished reading the initial proposal by co-authors Brook Taylor and Sam Korsmoe for a book on Vietnam as Asia’s next Tiger Economy, I became an ardent supporter of this initiative. I have been visiting, researching, and writing about Vietnam for the past fifty-five years. My focus was on the recent past and present in Vietnam and rarely did I venture to forecast developments a few years into the future.

As I read various drafts of Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star, I was prompted to reassess how I had framed my knowledge and experience about contemporary Vietnam and compare it with theirs. I was then led to engage intellectually with the co-author’s central concern: Does Vietnam have what it takes to become Asia’s next Tiger Economy, and, if so, what factors will enable it to do so?

Taylor and Korsmoe bring together more than fifty-seven years of experience living and working in Vietnam. On this basis that they explore what Vietnam’s future will be. Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star is a riveting and stimulating treatise on the drivers behind Asia’s next Tiger Economy.

The approach that the authors employ transcends normal academic discourse and disciplinary methodologies. They opt to look beyond economic models and take an interdisciplinary overview based on rigorous deductive reasoning. They extrapolate key themes from Vietnam’s geography, history, culture, and government to mould this overview. They then incorporate into their analysis the views of ordinary Vietnamese men and women they interviewed. This expanded interdisciplinary and eclectic approach provides a stimulating prologue to the main part of Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star.

Taylor and Korsmoe apply a rigorous methodology by developing, evaluating, and testing the metrics for their two-part central hypothesis: (1) Vietnam is the next Tiger Economy of Asia, and (2) it will grow and develop in a similar way to how South Korea and Taiwan grew as the Tiger Economies of their era. For the first part of their analysis, the co-authors identified key metrics associated with South Korea and Taiwan that defined them as Tiger Economies. Vietnam is measured against these metrics.

For the second part of their analysis, Taylor and Korsmoe introduce additional metrics to select pertinent case studies. Six wide-ranging case studies make the final cut, ranging from education; leapfrog technology; the role of women; tourism, cuisine, art, and Olympic Dreams; to value-added agriculture and public works.

The case studies draw on data from Taiwan, South Korea, and elsewhere for comparative purposes. The analysis of each case study is evaluated through a series of testing tools. The result is a finely crafted qualitative assessment. The reader is literally invited to add their perspective to this process and decide whether the co-authors have made their case. Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star concludes with a chapter entitled Vietnam in 2050 with a positive, forward looking, and compelling account of the factors that will influence Vietnam’s rise.

Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star will fill a lacuna in the literature on Vietnam because it is interdisciplinary, contemporary, and forward-looking. There is no book on the market that fills this gap. This book will appeal to an extremely wide audience because it is original and rigorous in its approach and superbly well-written. Vietnam – Asia’s Rising Star should be read by anyone with interest in Vietnam—students at all levels, academics of whatever discipline, diplomats in or about to be posted to Vietnam, government aid workers and NGOs, tourists, investors and financial analysts, overseas Vietnamese, and anyone else with an interest in the future of Asia.

Carlyle A. Thayer
Emeritus Professor
University of New South Wales,
Canberra
August 2023

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